Wednesday, July 27, 2005

Tysabri Update from Elan

UPDATE (6:51am PST): so, basically kelly martin tells us that tysabri will be back.... and that 1808 trials could restart at any time... and the stock drops? UPDATE (12:44am PST): i'm disappointed with the Q2 financials. prialt sales seem to be lagging. but, its not really going to affect shareprices. everyone expected eln to post an increased loss this quarter b/c of tysabri. also, no one really expects much out of prialt anyway. one thing however, that i want to mention, thats relevant to share price. i was glad to see that shane cooke reiterated that elan is still on track to achieve breakeven EBITDA by the end of 2005. at the moment, the euro exchanges are both trading sideways, both with low volume, so it appears that shareholders are hanging on, waiting to hear from kelly martin in the conf call. good thing though, i was reading through the NCB and Davy's Stockbrokers reports on yahoo (courtesy of 'paddystocks') and their takes on the Q2 financials are way more upbeat than mine. theres a good chance i'll be up all night studying, so i'll to recap the confcall before the market opens. ----------------- i didnt realize that ELN won't be releasing Q2 financials until irish time, so check back 11:30pst tonight for an update. however, the main event will be the conference call which takes place 8:30am EST. the stock had wild swings today, and i managed to add to my positions, but i have to admit, i'm pretty nervous about tomorrow. oh well, i've placed my bets on tysabri, and i'm hoping for the best. by the way, tomorrow (july 28), the new england journal of medicine will be officially publishing in print its research/editorial on Tysabri. i dont really understand the scientific material in the research papers, but if you do, you might want to check it out. im curious why BIIB and ELN held their conference calls 1 day apart this quarter... UPDATE: look at the July 28th publication of the NEJM. it was just released 10 min ago on their site. look for the tysabri articles. another point that i forgot to mention in yesterdays biogen call is that Elan and Wyeth may be looking to expand the drug manufacturing facility in Athlone. elan and wyeth have been in the news for their alzheimer's drug AAB-001 which just recently entered phase2 FDA trials, so we should expect to hear some developments on that as well. finally, ever since Q1, ELN has been in the news for its nanocrystal deals with other pharma companies. i expect to hear updates on that area as well, but of course, whats ultimately going to move ELN's stock tomorrow is tysabri progress and updates from shane cooke on their break-even EBITDA guidance.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just to let you know Elan are gone to tender for an expansion to the Athlone site, I am in the engineering group in Elan, went to tender about two weeks ago

7/27/2005 02:38:00 PM  

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