Friday, August 05, 2005


THE BULL TRADER We have moved our blog to a new webhost and a new domain. Please update your bookmarks, bloglines, and feedburners! Come check out the new site!


wow. what a crazy IPO. BIDU is up 350% from yesterdays close! whats making me go crazy is that i just read about this company a few days ago on Frank's blog at StockDraftPicks. go check out his continued coverage on BIDU. amazing stock...

Wednesday, August 03, 2005

Oil Services

this is something you dont see everyday. GEOI opened strong since NYMEX crude climbed to $62 a barrel. however, inventories were announced today, and the price of crude quickly droped $1 to $61. this caused a prompt sell-off in GEOI and some other companies in the oil services sector such as ABLE and MPET. i started looking into the oil sector because i was sick of the swings in biotech, but it looks like these stocks behave the same. on the other hand, ENG has been ripping for the last week. it climbed to a new high, gaining 100% since i profiled the stock a month or two ago. amazing.... i wish i had gotten in on that stock. i had no money at the time to play ENG, but at least i have a ton of ENG in my fake marketocracy account, which is doing great thanks to ENG. finally, i wanted to mention that the site will be moving to a real domain and a real webhost in a week or two. i've already bought the domain name and webhost server and i'm in the process of configuring the backend software. the new site will have a new name because is just too long to type. also, the new site will be powered by WordPress rather than blogspot. wordpress is a lot more robust and customizable, so the new site will be good. so yeah, the new site is coming in a few weeks!

Tuesday, August 02, 2005

DSTI Bull Trap

DSTI is one of the alternative energy stocks on my watchlist. SPIR and DSTI exploded awhile ago after they received solar contracts. DSTI is currently settling at the bottom of its price channel. it did bounce off the bottom support a few days ago, but it was on very low volume, so some bulls who bought into what looked like a reversal may have gotten trapped. i don't know anything about this company's fundamentals, but i do like solar power. out of all the alternative energy sources, i think that solar has the most potential. keep DSTI on your watchlists, but be careful about buying into low volume reversals. if you believe that the company will continue to receive solar contracts, this may be a good time to pick up some cheap shares. and more importantly, don't forget to email me if you have any hot info on DSTI's growth!

COGT On Fire

COGT has finally broken through its $30 resistance. i really like this stock because i got a easy ride from $24 to $30 a few weeks ago. it was the easiest play i ever made. i just bought it, and it kept going up and up until it hit the extremely strong $30 resistance (look at the yearly graphs to see what i mean). anyway, its busted through the resistance recently on decent volume, so you might want to check it out. at the moment, it looks like its supported by the 13dayEMA, but i cant really tell what a safe entry point is. a $32 entry might be a little risky, so if it retraces in the next few days on low volume, a ~$30 entry with a stop slightly below the 13EMA would be a much safer play. i'm going to stay out of this one because my cash is tied up in ELN and MPET at the moment, but i hope you guys found this chart useful.

Monday, August 01, 2005


Hey guys. Haven't had the opportunity to post for a while as school and all has been keeping me relatively busy. Recently, though, I've become very interested in undervalued stocks. As a preliminary criteria, I've been screening for stocks that seem to be undervalued relative to their competitors in a single sector. This is what I've come up with so far. NOVA, KFRC, RELV, CHNL, YAKC, PRFT, NATH, NSTC, TIBX As of now my most promising stocks seem to be NOVA and YAKC, but my analysis of these stocks is still in the preliminary stages. I'll keep you guys updated as I do more research. If anyone has any feedback regarding the subject, feel free to contact me. Just keep an eye out for these stocks and if one explodes, don't say I didn't warn you. Good luck and happy trading! -KW

Black Gold

i'm getting tired of rollercoaster biotech stocks, so lately i've been trying to learn about oil. oil is still trading near $60, and i'm going to try to see if theres anyway i can make some money in this sector.

in the long run, what it comes down to is whether oil prices in the coming years will make $60/barrel look expensive or cheap. i have no idea on how to trade futures, so i'll be doing some indepth fundamental research on smallcap oil stocks in the next couple weeks.

in fact, i've spent the last hour checking out a company which specializes in oil exploration. i'm not going to post up the chart until monday's open, however, because i have to see how the stock opens tomorrow to get a better idea of the risk/benefit assessment before i establish a position. in the meantime, you can check out ABLE and GEOI which are popular oil stocks for short-term traders. also, i found FickleTrader's chart on XOM to be pretty interesting as well.

anyway, since i don't understand oil at all, i've been reading this website which talks about how oil drilling works. i also read about how gas prices work, since i've always been curious. its a pretty useful read and theres a lot of other articles to read for fun on the website.

Thursday, July 28, 2005

Quick Update

i was really disappointed with ELN's selloff this morning. it really could have gone either way i think.. traders like me had unreasonable expectations going into the earnings call, and we were presented with good but not extraordinary news. i wouldn't be surprised if there were a lot of new traders wondering "so... is this good news or bad news?". i'm just thankful that the stock didn't gap down, allowing me to get stopped out without too much damage. trading mid-day was characterized by doubt, as i saw both heavy sellers and heavy buyers line up on the level 2. i thought the news was pretty promising, but the problem is that elan has not yet made any material achievements in bringing tysabri back to the market. they have, however, thrown out the date september 21, a date that everyone should watch for. the stock closed near the low of the day, and i'm not sure if the selloff will push the stock back to the pre-earnings $7.20 level or not. for now, i only have a small position left in ELN, so i'll be on the sidelines looking out for any rumors and developments. anyway, i'm busy with midterms/tests right now, so i'll be back to update on sunday night with the usual charts.

Wednesday, July 27, 2005

Tysabri Update from Elan

UPDATE (6:51am PST): so, basically kelly martin tells us that tysabri will be back.... and that 1808 trials could restart at any time... and the stock drops? UPDATE (12:44am PST): i'm disappointed with the Q2 financials. prialt sales seem to be lagging. but, its not really going to affect shareprices. everyone expected eln to post an increased loss this quarter b/c of tysabri. also, no one really expects much out of prialt anyway. one thing however, that i want to mention, thats relevant to share price. i was glad to see that shane cooke reiterated that elan is still on track to achieve breakeven EBITDA by the end of 2005. at the moment, the euro exchanges are both trading sideways, both with low volume, so it appears that shareholders are hanging on, waiting to hear from kelly martin in the conf call. good thing though, i was reading through the NCB and Davy's Stockbrokers reports on yahoo (courtesy of 'paddystocks') and their takes on the Q2 financials are way more upbeat than mine. theres a good chance i'll be up all night studying, so i'll to recap the confcall before the market opens. ----------------- i didnt realize that ELN won't be releasing Q2 financials until irish time, so check back 11:30pst tonight for an update. however, the main event will be the conference call which takes place 8:30am EST. the stock had wild swings today, and i managed to add to my positions, but i have to admit, i'm pretty nervous about tomorrow. oh well, i've placed my bets on tysabri, and i'm hoping for the best. by the way, tomorrow (july 28), the new england journal of medicine will be officially publishing in print its research/editorial on Tysabri. i dont really understand the scientific material in the research papers, but if you do, you might want to check it out. im curious why BIIB and ELN held their conference calls 1 day apart this quarter... UPDATE: look at the July 28th publication of the NEJM. it was just released 10 min ago on their site. look for the tysabri articles. another point that i forgot to mention in yesterdays biogen call is that Elan and Wyeth may be looking to expand the drug manufacturing facility in Athlone. elan and wyeth have been in the news for their alzheimer's drug AAB-001 which just recently entered phase2 FDA trials, so we should expect to hear some developments on that as well. finally, ever since Q1, ELN has been in the news for its nanocrystal deals with other pharma companies. i expect to hear updates on that area as well, but of course, whats ultimately going to move ELN's stock tomorrow is tysabri progress and updates from shane cooke on their break-even EBITDA guidance.

Tuesday, July 26, 2005

PRZ Daytrading

I've been following PRZ since the beginning of July and lately I've noticed a recurring trend. If you take a look at the chart, PRZ has been on the uptrend for quite a while, but if you look closer you'll realize that the stock has been moving in a very predictable pattern. Each day, for the last four days, PRZ has consistently pulled back during the opening hours of the market and made huge gains towards midday. Even if the stock does not continue this upward trend, you're sure to make a quick buck buying in at a pullback and selling after a recovery. Keep in mind, though, this stock still seems extremely volatile. Don't get greedy and get out as soon as you've made some modest gains. I've been trading this stock for about a month now and it has served me well. Currently though, the majority of my capital will be going towards the purchasing of ELN in hopes of the return of Tysbari. Read previous article for a more in-depth look. Good luck and happy trading!

Tysabri Update from Biogen

i'm listening to the biogen Q2 call right now. there are no material developments, but the executives are very upbeat about the reviews. jim mullen, the CEO, said that it is too early to make any conclusions, but that the MS portion of the review is almost complete. i assume that the crohns patient reviews are the holdup. he has reiterated that reviews should be done "by the end of summer." jim mullen also stated that studies on PML have been very fruitful and that onset of PML can be detected and managed. the important inference to make here is that there have been no new confirmed PML cases! also, biogenidec is continuing to fund development on the high titer process for tysabri, which allows higher production capacity for the drug. according to the financial officer, peter, "we are assuming that tysabri is only temporarily suspended". the KEY point that one of the executives brought up is the restart of tysabri trials. he stated that in the coming weeks, biogen/elan could be in talks with the FDA and EU regulatory agencies to restart tysabri trials for MS patients. he is most likely referring to a restart of the tysabri 1808 ms trials. i continue to be very upbeat on the future of tysabri, and i'm looking forward to ELN's call on thursday. Significant Q/A Session Information -Someone asked biogen to confirm that there are 3 cases of PML, but biogen refused to comment because it is too early to make conclusions from the safety evaluations. Instead, he reiterated that Biogen intends to push the FDA and EU regulatory agency to allow MS Tysabri trials to restart. -The expenses associated with developing the high-titer process will create some additional charges in Q3, but they will be "continuing to produce Tysabri throughout the year." -Tysabri's sales team has been temporarily reassigned to pitch Avonex, but the sales force for Tysabri is still availible for the relaunch of Tysabri. -The executives made fun of the Boston Globe and WSJ during the call (they reported a 4th and 5th 'case' of PML last month). -Clinical trials might restart before commerical relaunch of Tysabri. Resuming clinical trials is more simple FDA-wise than a commercial relaunch because of potential labeling issues. -FINALLY!! THE END OF SUMMER HAS BEEN DEFINED! The exec during the Q/A threw out the date September 21st as their definition of the "end of summer." -"Have you guys sent the data to the FDA necessary to take the hold off trials" *silence* "No." *next question*. -JW

Monday, July 25, 2005

ENG Confirmation

ENG looks like its ready to make another run. i've been watching it ever since is broke from the 1st ascending triangle. i didnt think it would explode today because it was trading sideways in the morning, but after i came home from class, i saw that it broke the $6 resistance on high volume. swingtraders should keep an eye on it this week. this is a good stock, and from the few pieces of info that i've read on them, they seem to have strong fundamentals.

i'm so mad at myself for not cashing in on this perfect chart setup. theres so much money to be made on so many stocks in the market, but i dont have enough money to get in on all the action because i'm still tied up financially with speculation on ELN's path forward for tysabri. i have to admit, i'm a little emotionally attached to ELN stock considering the number of times it has betrayed me, but im still HOPING for positive conference calls this week (biogen is reporting tmw).

finally, i want to thank the generous people who sent me paypal donations! looks like they liked my chart on BWLD (i got lucky with that call, i didnt expect them to raise their earnings outlook) and are taking profits before their Q2 earnings report. THANKS!

Sunday, July 24, 2005

DOVP Triple Top

keep DOVP on your watchlists next week. last week, it tested the historical triple trendline resistance with significantly above average volume. look for strength but i would probably wait for a confirmation before buying. dont forget to bookmark my site or suscribe to the bloglines/feedburner feed! i have a possible swingplay chart that i plan on posting up tomorrow. u dont want to miss out on it!

Stock Charts Mania

stock charts mania gives me a chance to dump some charts that i've collected over the week. i really dont have any opinions or predictions on these charts, i just drew out random stuff that i noticed... so don't take these very seriously. i'll run through each chart with a few words to let you know why i put it up. on EEEE, i saw a shark fin pattern emerging on thinning volume. i believe there's an actual stock pattern thats called Shark Fin or something like that. i forgot whats supposed to happen when theres a shark fin pattern, so look it up if it interests you. it could also be a symmetrical triangle i think, depending how u look at it. i posted up QQQQ because i was just practicing charting it against the s&p to look for buy/sell triggers. neat trick. i wonder if someone can perform automated trading on QQQQ simply by following these triggers? ie, buy at a buy trigger, then sell/short at a sell trigger. that would be a nice way to make money while you sleep. i posted up ARO just because it has such a gappy chart. its going to need some more volume to prevent from falling through the current support. finally, i posted up SGMS because i was using it to look for patterns in the MACD. watch and see if SGMS will pullback to its trendline support or if it will finally rally through its double trendline resistance. i hope these random charts were helpful to someone. please come back in the next few days because i've held back a few awesome stock charts that i will write dedicated blogs about later. so, you should really bookmark my site, add it to your bloglines, or suscribe to the RSS feed so that you don't miss out on these $$$ charts.

Saturday, July 23, 2005

HANS Meltdown

i wasnt going to update until sunday, but since people are still visiting the site during the weekend, i'll give you a preview of whats to come. i've been collecting a lot of charts lately and i'll post them all up at once mad money 'lightning round' style, so come back sunday night to check it out. i'm also continuing my research on alternative energy stocks. i like to post a picture with each article, so heres a graph of HANS, which has taken a beating the last few days on no news other than a lame marketwatch editorial. if this tumble doesn't correct itself, it could start looking like ebay back during the end of 2004. if youre bored, i suggest you check out this chart on the nasdaq resistance. also take a look at this article which looks at southwest airlines as a oil trader.

Friday, July 22, 2005

SWIR Falling Wedge

as u can see, for the last couple of weeks, i've been obsessed with learning chart patterns. heres SWIR, which is making a confirmed reversal from its falling wedge pattern today on heavy volume. i think it's because was upgraded by analysts today. also, they reported earnings recently so that probably played a role. anyway, today the stock filled a historical gap at around $8.00-$8.25 and is resting at a support, which makes sense. i'm not sure if it will continue to run tomorrow, but if youre an experienced trader, you might want to see how it opens tomorrow morning. good luck. UPDATE: after i reread my post, i just realized that SWIR could be forming a Island Bottom Reversal pattern. do u see the "island?" according to this rare pattern, the stock should be bullish in the immediate shortterm. oh and also, im interested in seeing how GOOG performs tmw. the afterhours action was all over the place. it went from 315 to 300 to 320 to 280 and finally to 295. crzy. if i had been involved in that stock, either long or short, i would have gone insane.

Tuesday, July 19, 2005

PNTV Parabola

Recently, PNTV has seen massive gains. From the data, it seems this stock is due for an imminent pullback. All the signs are there. The stock price has been increasing in a parabolic formation. The stock is being traded at its highest volume ever and it has recently formed the final step in the 4 steps leading to the formation of a unsustainable parabolic growth curve. I'm not sure really what to make of this data, just that holders of this stock should keep a very close eye on it. There's a good chance you could make a quick dollar by buying in during a gap down and getting out before the close. Albeit, this is also very risky. Interpret the data as you wish. Good luck and happy trading! -KW

Monday, July 18, 2005

MLNM Converging Channel

heres a stock with a pretty obvious pattern. the stock has formed a quadruple top at the $10 resistance and is progressing with higher lows, thus forming a converging price channel. the stock tried to make a run today with a strong open but it closed weak. this stock is almost ready to run, either up or down, so do your DD and strategize appropriately. oh and theyre reporting Q2 financials jul28, so u might want to keep that in mind. also i think their CEO stepped down recently so do your research on that too.

ELN In Play

ELN is white hot today. its a great feeling to wake up in the morning to this. keep ELN on your radar today. honestly, i have no idea whats causing this rally. no news has been released, so im guessing its either short covering or speculative buying. if you havent read it yet, take a look at my article on ELN entitled Betting On Tysabri. UPDATE (2:33pm PST): looks like todays run could have been triggered by a newsleak? positive results on trials were released after hours.

Saturday, July 16, 2005

Betting on Tysabri

on february 28th, elan and biogen idec pulled tysabri from sales and clinical trials. 2 patients who had been taking a combination of avonex and tysabri (avonex is an ms treatment by biogen) developed PML, a rare disease that causes destruction of brain tissue. since then, i've been dilligently following the developments as the two companies review the drug for a possible reintroduction to the market. my opinion is that the situation is greatly misunderstood by investors because of prejudiced coverage by the media and institutions. the purpose of this post is to put into perspective what has happened and for me to provide commentary to help you understand what is really going on. PML CASE #3 during the sgcowen health conference in mid-march, ceo kelly martin estimated that reviews would be completed by "the end of summer." at this time, the stock was trading around $7. on march 31st though, the stock tumbled from ~$7 to ~$3 overnight (taking me down with it). a 3rd confirmed case of PML was announced by the 2 companies. the 3rd patient was diagnosed with pml post-mortem (he died in 2003). the 3rd pml case had been on tysabri monotherapy in contrast to the first 2 pml cases who were on combination therapy (avonex+tysabri). the significance of patient 3 is that s/he was discovered to have been on other immunosuppressive drugs. [EDIT: patient 3 apparently had a history of treatments with steroids, remicade, and imuran (used in patients of organ transplants to lower the immune response so that the body does not reject the organ, ie an IMMUNOSUPPRESSANT). please refer to ThisIsMs for a full discussion on the effects of each drug] the key fact to keep in mind is that PML is already known to arise in immunosuppressed patients. since there have been no confirmed cases in tysabri monotherapy (cases 4 and 5 are unconfirmed), it can be speculated that combo therapy could be the culprit. ELAN AGM elan's AGM, which took place at the end of may, was very upbeat. kelly martin stated that it was a matter of "when, not if" tysabri would find a path back to ms patients. i listened to this AGM webcast live and believe me, it inspired a lot of confidence and excitement in my investment w/ elan. if you're new to elan, you should definitely listen in to the recorded AGM. the important thing to get from the AGM is that it was the last time that ELN officially briefed investors on tysabri. outlook on tysabri has been pretty grim lately, but keep in mind that nothing has officially changed. things brings us to PML "cases" 4 and 5. PML "CASES" 4 and 5 a few weeks after ELN's successful AGM, and 1 day suspiciously before BIIB's AGM, jeff krasner of the boston globe published a frontpage article which bore the headline: "A fourth death may be tied to Biogen's MS drug." this article alone caused eln stock to plunge from ~$8 to as low as $6.10 the next day. elan's PPS has yet to recover from the damage done by this article. shouldn't someone be held responsible for the losses sustained by shareholders like me? this "case" has since been rejected by biogen over a CC. in fact, there exists an article saying that the patient referred to as the '4th case' was shopping when she found out that she had "died." considering its been over a month since this report, we can assume that this case is not valid since ELN and BIIB would have been required by the SEC to report it officially. the same can be said about the '5th case' which was brought up by the WSJ (i dont have a subscription to read about it). so, in other words, there have been 3 confirmed cases of PML so far. 2 are combination therapy patients and the other is a monotherapy but immunosuppressed patient. SALE OF BIOGEN'S OCEANSIDE PLANT biogen recently sold its drug manufacturing plant in oceanside, ca to genentech. a lot of critics claimed that revealed biogen's lack of faith in tysabri return (oceanside was slated to produce tysabri). however, it is important to point out that biib has also developed a high titer method of manufacturing tysabri, meaning a higher production capacity for the drug. also keep in mind that the oceanside plant was part of biogens acquisition of idec. SIGNS OF A COMPANY IN TROUBLE? awhile ago, eln's chairman of the board, kyran [edited for spelling] mclaughlin, purchased 90K shares of eln. investors approved of a sharebuyback program during the AGM. eln posted very positive crohn's trial results a few weeks ago. eln will post breakeven EBITDA even without tysabri in its pipeline. eln has a very promising drug for alzheimers in phase2 that can be a even greater blockbuster drug than tysabri. eln is retiring some of its 1billion dollar debt that is due in 2008. elan's nanotech is starting to take off. the new england journal of medicine is considering the possibility of tysabri's return from a scientific standpoint. are these signs of a company in trouble? with the exception of NCB and a few other brokerages, everyone seems to love to hate elan. but hey, at least now they're actualy considering that tysabri will back. a few months ago, pretty much every analyst on wallst claimed that there was no chance tysabri would ever return. WRAP UP this is a great drug with great potential. for now, all signs point to tysabri monotherapy. as avonex combo therapy becomes singaled out as the culprit, and as avonex goes generic, biogen and elan will have to share tysabri as their sole flagship MS drug. the patient reviews should be finished any week now, and a risk/benefit profile revised by the fda. the speculated timeframes for the completion of reviews range from as early as Q3 2005 to as late as Q1 2006. kelly martin and jim mullen seem to continue to stand by their "end of summer" timeframe. if you'd like to read about tysabri/pml from a very scientific and medical standpoint, go over to the yahoo msg boards and search for posts by 'pinvestment' and 'neuro1111' [edited for spelling], both very well-versed scientists who graciously share their knowledge on the situation. during the writing of this post, i found the tixx webpage to be very helpful. they have a lot of cool documents on the site too. check out their site if you'd like to continue researching elan. good luck betting on tysabri. thanks for reading. -JW

Thursday, July 14, 2005

DESC In Play

DESC is continuing following through with its impressive gains in the last few days but has crossed the top bollinger and touched the $5 mark. this is one of the alternative energy stocks im following. do your DD, keep it on your watchlists, and strategize accordingly for tomorrow. ENG took a tumble today. good thing an intrday spike in the morning allowed smart money exit safely. i'll be continuing to watch ENG's action to see if it consolidates solidly above $5. ADBE's rally is taking a break today as the PPS briefly touched the 25EMA. another stock to look at tomorrow to see how things go. if you wanna see a really crazy chart, check out SFP.


My last post was regarding short-term investments. This time I wanted to touch on a long-term investment I’ve been recently researching, Starbucks. This coffee empire is a company I see as undervalued with an almost unlimited potential for growth. Starbuck’s has had a historic routine of overperformance, yet this has resulted in very high expectations for the company. As a result, investors have constantly come to expect these same sort of results from the company which can sour even perfectly decent reports. Last winter, the stock went as high as $64, but has since dropped due to these expectations. But let’s take a look at the facts. Within the last decade, the stock has split four times and I believe another one is way overdue. Barring the newest ads regarding their doubleshot espressos and frappucinos, how many of you have actually seen a Starbuck’s ad? They manage to save millions on advertisement, as they choose to invest this money in employee training instead. Listed as a fast-food company by the Fortune 500, they have one of the most comprehensive employee training programs available, creating a high-quality product for their consumers. As well, the company has an excellent business sense, catering to both their employees and their customers. Currently, there are 6000 stores within the US, but by the year 2010, they hope to expand to over 20,000 stores. People joke about seeing a Starbuck’s on every block, but this is no coincidence. The reason for these expansions is due to the high demand for Starbuck’s coffee. They like to call themselves a “coffee company serving people,” but they do much more. Real estate is a major part of their success. Oftentimes, Starbucks occupy the busiest corners on the street which allow for maximum exposure. Just by building a store on a corner drives up the price of the property and the immediate area surrounding it. If the owners were to sell just their properties alone, they could probably retire. The company has partnerships with many large names, such as Albertson’s and Barnes & Nobles, not to mention their own line of products. They have their own ice cream, which has become the top selling brand of coffee ice cream in the nation. They just recently bought their own music company, “Hear Music,” in 1999 so they could package their own cd’s. That music you hear in the store, they own it. Starbuck’s has even launched its own credit card, the Starbuck’s Duetto Visa. With plans to open on the Nikkei Index, I believe Starbuck’s has a bright future ahead and long-term investors would be well advised to take advantage of this stock. That’s all I’ve got for now so good luck and happy trading.

Wednesday, July 13, 2005

Utility for Centrino Laptops

i wont be updating on the market tonight because im bz with school stuff and playing with my new laptop (i dropped my old T40 Thinkpad). from looking at the list of domains that are logged in my webcounter, i see that a lot of you readers are business people, and therefore probably have centrino laptops. you guys should definitely check out this free (donations optional) utility called centrino hardware control that efficiently manages your centrino processor speed/voltage/fan dynamically. if youve ever had problems with your laptop being too hot, too loud (fan noise), or short on battery life, this utility will probably make a big difference. it can even adjust the loudness of your harddrive if the 'click' sound annoys u. download the app and set everything on "dynamic switching". its a really good app. later.

Stock Tool #3: Marketocracy

the purpose of this stock tools series is to guide new investors on learning about the market. i messed up big time by putting options trading as stock tool #1 considering its a pretty difficult concept to understand. so today, im going back to the basics. from stock tool #2, you learned how to properly read a chart. now its time to get a feel for trading. i made the mistake of jumping into the market with real cash before i was ready, and as a result, i made a lot of stupid trades in march and april and endangered my chances of ever becoming a FYM. trading with real money is really emotional and stressful at first (esp when youre a poor college student taking risks to get rich), so its good to get used to seeing your stocks value fluctuate from day to day. therefore, its important to be disciplined when it comes with money and risk management. a virtual trading account is a good way to do this. if you are a new investor, i really encourage you to practice on a marketocracy account before you open a real brokerage account. i started this marketocracy virutal trading account last month to practice trading in small/midcap growth stocks while diversifying enough to reduce volatility and risk. so far i'm doing pretty well. i've been consistently destroying the s&p and the other indices so far and my fund is up 8.5% since my june20 inception date. the top rankers in the 1-month time frame are pulling 18% returns in 30 days! i have no idea how theyre doing it. my goal is to eventually get ranked in the m100 and m10 competitions (you win real money), but that's gonna be extremely hard.

Tuesday, July 12, 2005

ADBE Rally

i've been following ADBE's rally for the last couple days. the stock finally stopped tanking after making a strong bounce off the $26.50 support. as it approaches the ~$28.75 resistance, we want to see if it can continue to rally to the 25 and 50 EMA. if there is some selling at the $28.75 resistance, will it continue inching back to the EMAs? the technicals claim that its not overbought, but that its not really totally oversold either. cramer went out of his way to rec ADBE. i dont know how much effect that will have though, because hes been very bullish of techs in general lately. i dont really have much else to say.. just something else to look at tmw. oh hmm i just noticed that ADBE's chart kinda resembles a head and shoulders graph. interesting.